Kaepernick Going Unsigned Is A Statistical Anomaly

Kaepernick Going Unsigned Is A Statistical Anomaly


Against all odds, Colin Kaepernick is still unsigned this offseason. As RealGM Wiretap wrote: “Since 1966, only one under-30 quarterback has had as good a year as Colin Kaepernick’s 2016 has gone unsigned the next year.

Kyle Wagner of FiveThirtyEight went into slightly more detail:

“There are an unusual number of unsigned QBs at this stage of the offseason…  in part because Dallas Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo may move teams this offseason and begin a QB carousel in the league…

There are other factors that may be at play, such as his reported desire to compete for a starting job (and earn a low-starter to high-backup salary)… Kaepernick completed 61 percent of his passes from the pocket, for 14 touchdowns and two interceptions… The league median completion percentage since 2010 is 63 percent… He completed just 49 percent of his passes from outside the pocket in 2016…

Despite Kaepernick’s flaws, QBs at his level are still worth something in the NFL, in part because its quarterback marketplace is driven by scarcity. The Denver Broncos were prepared to give up a fourth-round pick for Kaepernick last year because there aren’t that many people in the world who can do what Kaepernick can do”

While there are a lot of questions regarding his ability as a QB, the biggest question is: how much have politics played a role in Kaepernick’s free agency?
As we wrote earlier this month:
Mike Freeman of Bleacher Report talked to several NFL executives who indicated that they would not pursue Kaepernick if he continued to kneel during the national anthem. According to Freeman, one exec went as far as to call the quarterback ‘an embarrassment to football’.”
While this is definitely an issue; for the moment, it still seems quite likely that a team will pick him up. As USA Today suggested, the Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and Buffalo Bills could all benefit from adding Kaepernick to their roster. But don’t take my word for it, just listen to Baltimore Ravens coach John Harbaugh [via CBS Sports]:
“I absolutely think he’s going to get signed. I think he’ll probably be starting somewhere… He’s too good a player. I mean, he’s got to prove himself as a player. Colin knows that, he’d be the first to tell you that. You know, when you’re the quarterback and you don’t win, you’re going to have to answer for that. But he’ll get a chance again. Someone’s going to sign him and he’ll play in this league probably for a long time…. We’ve been very clear over the years, guys speak their mind in Baltimore. It’s not going to impact how somebody plays. I’m not going to play better or worse because this person believes this or that. We can certainly disagree with anything, a political opinion, or how a guy wears his socks or whatever. It’s not going to impact how I perform but we’re allowed to have that conversation and that’s what America is.”
[Photo via Flickr User “Alexandria K Passe]

One Response to "Kaepernick Going Unsigned Is A Statistical Anomaly"

  1. Vickie Throm   Sunday, April 2nd, 2017 at 9:12 pm

    I think they are a bunch of hypocrites! They dont want violent protest but we have a person that is making a statement that he has every right to make and this crap is happening to him. I would kneel with Mr. Kaepernick anytime! He is an upstanding young man and should not be treated so disgracefully!.